Why use last year's peak pace instead of current sales?

Peak weeks can run three to four times normal orders. A forecast built on this month's average can say you have plenty of stock when you may sell out within days of the peak starting.

What if this product didn't exist last peak season?

Use a similar product's peak pace, or apply your store-wide peak lift to the product's current sales rate. Treat the result as a rough range, not an exact date.

Will the same prompt work in ChatGPT?

Yes. ChatGPT, Grok, Muse or any assistant that can read your Shopify inventory and ad spend, live or from uploaded files, can run it and give the same projection.

Should I stop ads on products that will sell out?

Not always. Lower spend so stock lasts through the peak, and keep some coverage if a reorder will arrive in time. The goal is to have stock on the days that matter most.

All playbooks

Keep more of each sale · Play

Shift spend before your hero product sells out

Spending hard on a product that'll sell out before Black Friday is paying to run out early.

Spending hard on a product that will sell out before peak season pays to run out early. Connect Shopify, Meta Ads and Google Ads to Claude and ask it to project stock for your top ten products at last year's peak pace, show spend on each, and suggest where to move budget. Reorder the products that won't last.

1
Connect
2
Ask
For my top 10 products, take current stock and the sales rate over the last 14 days. At last year's peak-season pace, which products sell out before [date]? For each, show how much ad spend points at it. Suggest which products to move spend toward.
Paste this into Claude, ChatGPT, Codex or Cursor.
3
Act
Move spend toward products with stock to last the peak. Order more of the ones that won't.

What it tends to findExample

3 top sellers would sell out by 20 Nov at last year's Black Friday pace.

Watch out

Peak weeks can run 3 to 4 times normal orders. Use last year's peak, not this month's average.

Step by step

01Connect Shopify, Meta Ads and Google Ads to Claude read-only, through connectors or MCP servers if available, or upload inventory, sales and ad spend exports.
02Run the prompt with your peak date so Claude projects which top products sell out first.
03Use last year's peak-week pace, not this month's average. Peak weeks can run several times normal orders.
04Move spend toward products with enough stock, and place reorders for the ones that won't last.
05Re-run weekly in the run-up to a peak.

Questions

Run these next

Every number on these pages is an illustrative example, not a result from a named store. Read-only access is enough for every check; make any change yourself.

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